Maersk Finds Profit in the Traffic Jam

Maersk Finds Profit in the Traffic Jam

Mark Nichols

Thu, August 13, 2026 at 10:09 PM GMT+3 4 min read

THE GIST

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Maersk warned about too many ships. Instead, the bigger problem turned out to be too few ways to move containers once they hit land. That's good news for profits, at least for now. Bad news for anyone hoping global trade would suddenly become smooth.

WHAT HAPPENED

A.P. Moller-Maersk reported a strong second quarter and raised full-year guidance for the second time this year.

Revenue rose 20% year on year to $15.8 billion, while operating profit almost doubled to about $1.6 billion, well ahead of analyst expectations of roughly $700 million. Net profit rose to $1.26 billion from $586 million a year earlier.

Maersk now expects full-year underlying EBIT of $4.5 billion to $6.5 billion, up from its previous $2 billion to $4 billion range. It also lifted underlying EBITDA guidance to $10.5 billion to $12.5 billion from $8 billion to $10 billion.

Shares rose as much as 9% as investors welcomed the upgrade.

The company said demand remained resilient, with global container market volume expected to grow about 4% this year. Growth was especially strong from the Far East, helped by exports from China and stronger flows into Africa, North America and Latin America.

Higher spot rates also helped, driven by tight capacity, unbalanced trade flows and congestion in Europe, the Middle East, the east coast of South America and West Africa.

CEO Vincent Clerc said the bigger issue is no longer simply ship capacity. It is ports, rail, trucks, barges and inland infrastructure struggling to move containers to their final destination.

WHY IT MATTERS

Maersk is having the kind of problem shipping companies secretly like: demand is strong, routes are messy and bottlenecks are pushing up rates.

That is a reversal from the worry earlier this year. Clerc had warned that years of aggressive vessel ordering could create overcapacity and send freight rates lower. More ships usually mean less pricing power, especially after the pandemic-era profit boom tempted carriers to expand fleets.

But the shortage now is not just floating capacity. It is the land-based plumbing of global trade.

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Containers can cross oceans, but then they still need terminals, cranes, rail links, trucks, warehouses and barges. Clerc argues that infrastructure has been underinvested in since the financial crisis, and the result is showing up now in congestion across multiple regions.

The Red Sea and Suez Canal are gradually reopening after years of Houthi attacks forced vessels around Africa's Cape of Good Hope. Maersk says about a third of its traffic is now using the Red Sea and Suez route again, but Clerc said the return will have little impact on earnings.

The Strait of Hormuz is similar. A reopening would be positive, but Clerc called it small rather than meaningful for global container trade. The bigger profit driver is the painful reality that ports and inland networks are jammed even when demand is not at pandemic levels.

That is why Maersk is calling for more investment in trade infrastructure. More ships alone will not fix supply chains if containers get stuck after unloading. Bottlenecks are appearing in Europe, Brazil and Africa, while Bloomberg reported severe congestion in Asian ports, including vessels waiting days outside Shanghai after storms added to delays.

For Maersk, those bottlenecks can lift earnings. Congestion keeps capacity tight, supports spot rates and gives carriers more pricing power. For customers, it means higher costs, less predictable delivery and more volatility.

The demand story is also more durable than a simple rebound. Electrification, data centers, electric vehicles, cooling equipment and energy-transition infrastructure are changing what moves through global trade lanes. That helps explain why trade has remained resilient despite wars, tariffs, extreme weather and route disruption.

The contrast with Hapag-Lloyd shows why execution and exposure matter. The German carrier reported first-half EBIT down 97% to €16 million, citing operational disruptions and Middle East volatility. Maersk, meanwhile, turned turbulence into an upgrade, helped by stronger demand, higher rates and its ability to redeploy capacity.

That does not make Maersk immune. Freight rates are volatile, port congestion can ease and vessel overcapacity could still bite if demand slows. A gradual return to Suez could also release some capacity back into the system, even if management says the impact will be limited.

But for now, Maersk benefits from a world that wants more goods than its infrastructure can comfortably handle. The company once feared too many ships. The market is paying it for too many queues.

WHAT'S NEXT

Investors will watch whether Maersk can hold higher freight rates as more services return through Suez and new vessels enter the market. The key tests are container demand, Asian export strength, port congestion, inland transport capacity, Middle East route stability and whether infrastructure spending finally catches up.

Maersk is sailing through the storm. The question is whether the traffic jam lasts long enough to keep profits buoyant.