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Why Is Nutrien (NTR) Raising Guidance While Nitrogen Volumes Slide?

Fri, August 14, 2026 at 11:36 AM GMT+3 4 min read

• NTR +1.14%

Nutrien (NYSE:NTR) held its second-quarter 2026 earnings call on August 6. The headline numbers show a company leaning on its potash strength to offset a bumpier nitrogen and phosphate picture, while still finding room to raise guidance in one segment and cut spending in another.

Bull Case: Potash Carries The Quarter

Nutrien posted record potash sales volumes in the first half of 2026 and raised the bottom end of its full-year potash sales guidance to a range of 14.2 million to 14.8 million tonnes. Potash generated $658 million in adjusted EBITDA during the quarter, and the company kept controllable cash costs flat year over year while targeting below $60 per tonne for the full year. Automation now covers 53% of ore tonnes mined in the first half, already past the target management set at its 2024 Investor Day. Canpotex is fully committed to third-quarter volumes, and management pointed to a favorable response to its domestic summer fill program.

Beyond the mine, Nutrien trimmed its 2026 capital expenditure guidance by $50 million to a range of $1.95 billion to $2.05 billion, and lifted first-half share repurchases 26% over the prior year, stepping up the pace to roughly $75 million a month in the third quarter. Retail adjusted EBITDA climbed 4% in the first half to $1.24 billion, driven by a 10% jump in proprietary crop nutrients gross margin and sales volumes for certain nutritional products that nearly tenfolded from a year earlier. The company has also generated about $1 billion in gross divestiture proceeds since the fourth quarter of 2024, including roughly $90 million in new agreements since June 2026, and said it received numerous nonbinding bids as it reviews strategic alternatives for its phosphate business.

Bear Case: Nitrogen And Phosphate Show The Cracks

Nitrogen sales volumes fell from the prior year, with no production from Trinidad or New Madrid, planned maintenance at Carseland, and deferred customer purchases late in the quarter as market volatility picked up. Only about 35% of total nitrogen segment volumes were sold ahead of the onset of the Middle East conflict, leaving more of the book exposed to a choppier pricing environment. Global urea prices dropped in the back half of the second quarter during a seasonal demand lull that geopolitical developments made worse, even as management says trade flow disruptions, production outages, and elevated energy prices firmed up fundamentals again in the third quarter.

Phosphate adjusted EBITDA declined in the quarter because of elevated sulfur costs that Nutrien described as placing unsustainable pressure on producer margins across the industry. Nitrogen segment adjusted EBITDA came in at $635 million for the quarter, and the company still has turnarounds planned at its Lima and Redwater facilities in the third quarter, adding to the operational moving parts already at play from the Carseland work completed earlier in the year.

What The Market Is Pricing In

Hedge fund ownership of Nutrien rose from 36 funds in the prior quarter to 43 in the most recent one, a sign institutional interest is building rather than fading. Short interest sits at just 0.78% of float, indicating little organized bearish positioning against the stock. At the same time, shares trade at a forward P/E of 12.82 as of August 13, a multiple that does not scream optimism given the earnings growth management is pointing to.

A Business Pulling In Two Directions

Nutrien's first half leaned on potash to fund buybacks, guidance increases, and a lower capital budget, while nitrogen and phosphate absorbed maintenance outages, cost pressure, and volatile order books. For the potash-driven story to keep carrying results, automation gains and cost discipline need to hold. For the nitrogen and phosphate side, sulfur costs and geopolitical trade disruptions are the variables still unresolved heading into year-end.

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