Copper 2021 Sıkıştırma Seviyelerini Vurdu: Bitcoin Madencileri ve Yapay Zeka Patlaması için Ne Anlama Geliyor?

Copper Hits 2021 Squeeze Levels: What It Means for Bitcoin Miners and the AI Boom

Giuseppe Ciccomascolo

Mon, August 17, 2026 at 2:33 PM GMT+3 4 min read

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Key Takeaways

• The LME copper spot premium reached $478 per ton over the three-month contract, its widest level since the 2021 supply squeeze.

• LME inventories have declined for 42 consecutive days, while almost half of the remaining copper is already scheduled for withdrawal.

• Copper shortages could raise construction and expansion costs for Bitcoin miners, particularly for cabling, transformers, substations and grid connections.

Copper's steepest supply squeeze since 2021 is sending a warning across two electricity-hungry industries: Bitcoin mining and artificial intelligence.

The London Metal Exchange's cash copper contract traded as much as $478 per ton above the three-month contract on Monday. Such backwardation signals that buyers are paying unusually high premiums for immediately available metal.

The move followed a $370-per-ton front-month premium on Friday and came as LME inventories declined for a 42nd consecutive day, the longest withdrawal streak since 2014. Stockpiles fell to 204,975 tons, with almost half already earmarked for removal.

Copper prices have consequently gained nearly 16% this year, with the three-month contract reaching $14,360.50 per ton and approaching January's record of $14,527.50.

Copper Supply Is Tightening as US Tariff Risks Distort Trade

The squeeze reflects both falling production and a geographic scramble for available copper.

Expectations that the United States could impose tariffs on refined copper have lifted American prices above LME benchmarks.

That gap creates an arbitrage opportunity, encouraging traders and producers to redirect metal toward the US instead of delivering it into LME warehouses.

The result is an increasingly severe shortage of exchange-deliverable copper elsewhere, particularly in Europe.

Production has also disappointed. Jefferies' latest tracker, covering miners responsible for roughly 55% of global supply, showed second-quarter output falling 3.9% year over year to 3.113 million tons.

Ivanhoe Mines recorded a 43% decline following disruption at Kamoa-Kakula, while Newmont's production dropped 53% amid lower ore grades. Freeport-McMoRan, Antofagasta and BHP also reported declines.

Jefferies expects the copper market to record a 442,000-ton deficit in 2026, widening to 782,000 tons by 2030.

Higher Copper Costs Could Squeeze Bitcoin Mining Economics

Bitcoin mining does not consume copper directly as fuel, but its expansion depends on copper-intensive electrical infrastructure.

Mining facilities require transformers, substations, transmission connections, switchgear, cooling equipment and extensive power cabling. Rising copper prices can therefore increase the capital cost of building new mines or expanding existing sites.

The pressure would be particularly significant for miners already contending with volatile Bitcoin prices, rising network difficulty and shrinking margins after successive block-reward halvings.

Higher infrastructure costs could delay projects and favor large operators capable of signing long-term supply contracts.

Copper scarcity may also intensify competition for grid connections. Miners increasingly seek locations with abundant power, but new generation and transmission capacity cannot be added without substantial quantities of conductive metal.

Existing mining sites with secured electricity and completed infrastructure could consequently become more valuable.

AI Data Centers Add Another Layer of Competition

The AI boom presents a similar, but potentially larger, challenge.

Hyperscale data centers require copper across power distribution systems, cooling infrastructure, backup generation and grid connections. The International Energy Agency expects data-center electricity consumption to rise sharply as companies deploy increasingly powerful AI models.

That buildout is occurring alongside growing copper requirements from renewable energy, electric vehicles and conventional grid modernization. Jefferies expects grid-related copper demand to expand by 5% annually through 2030, while EV demand grows by 9.6%.

Bitcoin miners and AI operators are also competing for some of the same sites, energy contracts and electrical equipment. A prolonged copper deficit could increase construction costs for both industries while slowing the arrival of new power capacity.

Jefferies forecasts average copper prices of $13,380 per ton in 2026, rising to $17,637 by 2030.

The present squeeze may ease if tariff expectations change or inventories return to LME warehouses.

However, declining ore grades and repeated operational setbacks suggest the broader constraint is structural. For Bitcoin miners and AI developers, copper is becoming another critical bottleneck in the race for computing power.

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