Why Private Equity's Playbook Is Losing to Public Markets

Why Private Equity's Playbook Is Losing to Public Markets

Sun, August 16, 2026 at 3:07 PM GMT+3

Private equity has long promised investors better returns than public markets, while offering entrepreneurs like Dan Namerow life-changing exits. But the market that made those deals work has changed. Higher interest rates have made debt-financed buyouts harder to justify, while deals struck at peak valuations in 2020 and 2021 have become more difficult to exit. University of Chicago Booth professor Steven Kaplan says US buyout funds largely beat public markets for decades, but that pattern has reversed since 2019, while PitchBook reports that the backlog of companies held by private equity firms has risen to more than 33,000. The result is a tougher environment where firms are being judged less on leverage and multiple expansion, and more on whether they can actually improve the businesses they buy.