Where Will Chipotle Mexican Grill's Stock Be in 5 Years?

Where Will Chipotle Mexican Grill's Stock Be in 5 Years?

Lawrence Rothman, CFA, The Motley Fool

Wed, August 19, 2026 at 4:14 PM GMT+3 4 min read

• CMG +3.16%
• NVDA +0.82%

When investors try to predict future stock prices, they're engaging in an activity that's both an art and a science. That's because no one knows what will happen, obviously.

But those who own or are considering purchasing stock in a company should make the effort. Doing it in a way that has some chance of being accurate requires developing an understanding of the business and making some assumptions, but you'll find the effort worthwhile.

Missed Nvidia in 2009? This Rare Signal Is Flashing Again. In 2009, a "Double Down" signal flashed for a little-known chipmaker called Nvidia. For the first time in years, that same "Total Conviction" signal is flashing for a company 1/100th the size of Nvidia. Continue »

Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) has encountered some challenges this year. But where can we expect its stock price to be in five years?

The business

Chipotle Mexican Grill serves Mexican-style food such as burritos, quesadillas, tacos, and salads. The fast-casual restaurant seeks to use fresh ingredients without artificial colors, flavors, or preservatives.

The company has had a lot of success, but results have been challenging recently. That's because consumers have faced broadly higher prices for most of their purchases, and their paychecks haven't kept up with inflation.

In the second quarter, Chipotle's same-store sales increased 2.2%. While that was not great, it was an improvement from the first quarter's 0.5% gain. Positively, in Q2, higher traffic contributed 1 percentage point to that growth. That shows people remain attracted to the restaurant.

The spending breakout shows how persistent inflation has weighed on consumers. Higher spending added 1.2 percentage points to the same-store sales gain. However, this was entirely due to Chipotle's price increases (1.6 percentage points), and customers shifting to lower-priced items subtracted 0.4 percentage points from the final result.

Adding to the company's woes, a salmonella outbreak was linked to jalapeños served at Chipotle. Still, management appeared to act quickly to address the issue with its supplier, which means customers aren't likely to permanently stop visiting its restaurants.

Meanwhile, the company has continued its expansion plans. Starting in 1993, it grew to nearly 4,100 restaurants as of June 30, 2026.

Management opened 144 new locations, net of closures, during the first six months of the year. It plans to open 350 to 370 restaurants total for the year.

Putting it together

Diluted earnings per share (EPS) were flat in the second quarter, compared to a year ago. Assuming the inflationary environment becomes more benign, people may feel more comfortable spending money on eating out. That should help Chipotle's sales and earnings growth.

Chipotle earned $1.14 a share in 2025. From 2020 through 2025, EPS grew 357%.

Assuming its earnings grow at a much slower rate over the next five years -- say, 200% -- that would bring Chipotle's EPS to $3.42 in 2030.

The stock trades at a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of 31.

Assuming that ratio stays constant, multiplying the EPS by the P/E points to a stock price of $106. That's more than triple the current stock price of $33.50.

Of course, that's still a rapid earnings growth rate. What if it slows down to 50% over the next five years? Chipotle Mexican Grill's stock price would increase to $53, 58% above its current price. Investors would undoubtedly be pleased with that performance.

Should you buy stock in Chipotle Mexican Grill right now?

Before you buy stock in Chipotle Mexican Grill, consider this:

The Motley Fool Stock Advisor analyst team just identified what they believe are the 10 best stocks for investors to buy now… and Chipotle Mexican Grill wasn't one of them. The 10 stocks that made the cut are built for long-term growth and could produce monster returns in the coming years.

Consider when Netflix made this list on December 17, 2004... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $419,408!* Or when Nvidia made this list on April 15, 2005... if you invested $1,000 at the time of our recommendation, you'd have $1,348,694!*

That performance is why people listen. With a track record of beating the S&P 500 by nearly 5x, Stock Advisor offers a distinct advantage. Don't miss the latest top 10 list, available with Stock Advisor, and join an investing community built for the long haul.

See the 10 stocks »

*Stock Advisor returns as of August 19, 2026.

Lawrence Rothman, CFA has no position in any of the stocks mentioned. The Motley Fool has positions in and recommends Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool recommends the following options: short September 2026 $35 calls on Chipotle Mexican Grill. The Motley Fool has a disclosure policy.

Where Will Chipotle Mexican Grill's Stock Be in 5 Years? was originally published by The Motley Fool