Saudi Export Pivot Sends Brent Below $105

Saudi Export Pivot Sends Brent Below $105

Tom Kool

Fri, September 18, 2026 at 7:15 PM GMT+3 5 min read

• 2222.SR -0.47%
• CL=F -1.29%

Saudi Aramco shifts crude exports to the Persian Gulf, easing supply fears and pushing Brent below $105.

Friday, September 18, 2026

Last week's market panic about the 7 million b/d East-West pipeline remaining offline for weeks gave way to a slightly more nuanced outlook this week, with Saudi Aramco re-orienting all its loadings to the Persian Gulf. Whilst flows from Ras Tanura still carry the risk of potential Iranian drone strikes in the Strait, the fact that Saudi Aramco keeps on offering crude to Asian buyers (in contrast to its Europeans buyers) has calmed markets, sending ICE Brent below $105 per barrel, a couple of cents below its last week's settlement price.

Saudi Arabia Races to Repair East-West Pipeline. Saudi Aramco expects to restore flows through its damaged 7 million b/d East-West pipeline within days after drone attacks damaged multiple pumping stations, seeking to restart the conduit at least partially to ease pressure on loadings in the Gulf.

Canada Oil Sands Win New Tax Breaks. Canada's federal government has expanded investment tax incentives, helping support more than C$100 billion ($72 billion) of planned oil sands, pipeline and CCS spending over the next decade, positioning new projects to face an effective tax rate of just 6.4%.

Container Traffic Through Suez Starts to Recover. Container lines are cautiously returning to the Red Sea, with 27% of Asia-Europe container capacity now transiting the Suez Canal, up from 17% in early August, although renewed Houthi-Saudi hostilities continue to deter cargo owners from a full return.

LNG Canada Nears FID on Mulled 2nd Phase. The Shell-led (LON:SHEL) LNG Canada project could see an approval of its 14 mtpa Phase 2 expansion as early as October, doubling the project's capacity to 28 mtpa and reinforcing Ottawa's pivot towards Asian markets amidst a deteriorating US trade outlook.

Libya Resolves Dispute Behind Oil Outage. Libya has settled a dispute with a faction of the Petroleum Facilities Guard that temporarily disrupted crude output at the North Hamada field, averting broader risks to the 300,000 b/d El Sharara and 90,000 b/d El Feel fields amidst brewing internal discontent.

Exxon Hikes Global Emission Outlook. In its 2026 annual energy outlook, US oil major ExxonMobil (NYSE:XOM) reiterated its expectations of oil demand rising to 105 million b/d by 2050, up by 5 million b/d from current levels, whilst hiking global emissions forecast by 10% to 30 billion tonnes of CO2.

India Warns US Against Trade Talk Pressure. India pushed back against proposed US tariffs of up to 100% on buyers of Russian crude, warning the measures could complicate bilateral trade negotiations and threaten energy security, as September imports of Indian refiners from Russia average 2 million b/d.

Vietnam Eyes Construction of Third Refinery. Vietnam's Ca Mau province is seeking approval for a 155,000 b/d refinery and petrochemical complex, with an initial 65,000 b/d phase expanding later to full capacity, as PetroVietnam looks to process a 50:50 blend of Middle Eastern and South American crude.

China 'Teapots' Cut Runs as Crude Shortages Bite. Independent refiners in Shandong have reduced refinery run rates to 50-60%, down from 65-66% in August, amidst disappearing Iranian barrels, as Beijing weighs options including a potential 100 million-barrel SPR release to ease feedstock pressures.

Russia Extends Diesel Export Ban Through October. Russia has reportedly extended its diesel export ban until the end of October, while keeping restrictions on non-producers and gasoline exports in place until January 2027, as refinery outages and Ukrainian attacks continue to disrupt fuel supplies.

US Considers Another Major SPR Release. U.S. Energy Secretary Chris Wright said the government could soon resume oil releases from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, with 38.5 million barrels still available under the Trump administration's 172-million-barrel emergency drawdown program.

Chinese Buying Drives ESPO Premiums to Record Highs. Differentials of Russia's ESPO Blend crude premiums have surged to their strongest levels on record as Chinese refiners sought to mop up all November-arriving cargoes, pushing delivered Shandong premiums to a record $29/bbl over Brent.

Qatar LNG Flows Creep Back Through Hormuz. At least two LNG cargoes transited the Strait of Hormuz this week, including a Qatar-loaded shipment from Ras Laffan, while at least three LNG ship-to-ship transfers recorded off Oman since mid-August, signalling tentative efforts to restore Gulf LNG exports.

EU Mulls Windfall Tax on Oil Profits. EU finance ministers are considering a bloc-wide windfall tax on energy companies after oil prices surged above $100/bbl again, although the European Commission has so far resisted proposing an EU-wide mechanism and says member states can act individually.

South Korea Extends Fuel Tax Relief. South Korea has extended fuel tax cuts through Nov. 30, keeping reductions of 15% on gasoline and 25% on diesel and butane, lowering pump prices by up to 145 won per liter ($0.40 per gallon) as the government seeks to shield consumers from rising oil price risks.

By Tom Kool for Oilprice.com

More Top Reads From Oilprice.com

Oilprice Intelligence brings you the signals before they become front-page news. This is the same expert analysis read by veteran traders and political advisors. Get it free, twice a week, and you'll always know why the market is moving before everyone else.

You get the geopolitical intelligence, the hidden inventory data, and the market whispers that move billions - and we'll send you $389 in premium energy intelligence, on us, just for subscribing. Join 400,000+ readers today. Get access immediately by clicking here.