Bitcoin has never broken this line in 15 years, it is on it right now

Bitcoin has never broken this line in 15 years, it is on it right now

Bibhu Pattnaik

Sun, August 2, 2026 at 4:30 PM GMT+3 2 min read

• BTC-USD +0.40%

There is one technical indicator that has called every major Bitcoin bottom in the asset's 15-year trading history. It has never been broken on a weekly close. Not once. Bitcoin is sitting on it right now.

The 200-week moving average, the average of Bitcoin's closing price over the past 200 weeks, currently sits in the $54,000 to $64,000 range.

Bitcoin is trading at approximately $62,000 today, July 31, 2026. That puts it directly on the line that has historically separated recoveries from crashes.

What the 200-week moving average has done before

The first time Bitcoin touched the 200-week moving average was in 2015. The price had collapsed from $1,163 in November 2013 all the way down to $152, an 87 percent decline.

The 200-week moving average held. Bitcoin recovered and went on to hit $19,783 in December 2017.

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The second test came in late 2018. Bitcoin had fallen from $19,783 to $3,122, an 84 percent crash. The 200-week moving average held again. Bitcoin went on to hit $69,000 in November 2021.

The third test arrived in early 2023, following the 2022 collapse from $69,000 to $15,476 that took the Terra Luna implosion and FTX bankruptcy to produce.

The 200-week moving average held. Bitcoin went on to hit $126,000 in October 2025. Three touches. Three holds. Three recoveries to new all-time highs.

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Bitcoin has now pulled back 51 percent from that $126,000 peak, driven by rising Treasury yields, sustained ETF outflows, Strategy's $8.32 billion unrealized loss creating market anxiety, and a hawkish Fed that has kept dollar strength elevated throughout 2026.

The result is a price that has drifted back into contact with the 200-week moving average for the fourth time in Bitcoin's history.

The 200-week moving average has never been broken on a weekly close. But past performance in financial markets does not guarantee future results, and analysts who predicted the 2022 bottom at the 200-week MA were right, while the dozens who called it broken were wrong.

What the indicator offers is not a guarantee. It offers the most data-backed context available for understanding where Bitcoin sits in its long-term cycle.

Three times it marked the bottom. The fourth test is happening right now.

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This story was originally published by TheStreet on Aug 2, 2026, where it first appeared in the MARKETS section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.