"Ciddi bir hata ": Moody's Analytics ekonomisti, Fed'in sessizliğiyle ekonomiyi riske attığını söyledi

'A serious mistake': Moody's Analytics economist says the Fed is putting the economy at risk with its silence

Aditi Ganguly

Sun, August 16, 2026 at 3:55 PM GMT+3 9 min read

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Federal Reserve chair Kevin Warsh wants the central bank (1) to say less about where the economy is headed.

But one prominent economist argues that the approach could hurt the U.S. economy by leaving financial markets in the dark about the Fed's next moves.

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On July 29, Fed officials voted 9-3 (2) to keep interest rates unchanged in the range of 3.5% to 3.75% for the fifth time in a row. The three dissenting voices came from regional bank presidents who favored a quarter-point rate increase to address energy supply shocks that have pushed up gasoline prices and the cost of a range of other goods.

At a news conference following the conclusion of the two-day meeting, Warsh declined to say what conditions would prompt the Fed to raise interest rates. Financial markets swiftly reacted, sending the yield on the 30-year Treasury bond to 5.22% on July 29 — its highest level since 2007.

That has prompted several analysts to warn that the Fed could face backlash from investors that may threaten the broader economy.

"There is a new potential threat to the economy – a serious mistake by the Federal Reserve," Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody's Analytics, wrote in an X post (3). "I'm not concerned about the Fed's decision to keep rates unchanged. My concern is that policymakers are unwilling to provide even a modicum of forward guidance — or a broad sense of their reaction function."

'More volatility in bond and stock markets'

Zandi said the Fed's reluctance to guide Warsh will leave investors guessing about its strategy to combat inflation and "repeatedly wrong-footed."

"That means more volatility in bond and stock markets, which is likely already reflected in a larger term premium, rising long-term interest rates, and a wobbly equity market," Zandi said. "If the Fed continues down this increasingly opaque path, a future meeting could trigger a serious market sell-off — putting the broader economy at risk."

Stocks fell while bond yields climbed after the Fed concluded the meeting.

Economists at Bank of America also warned that traders could begin treating the Fed more like the central bank of a developing economy struggling with credibility issues.

"A steeper curve, lower equities, and a weaker dollar is the typical price action associated with credibility shocks faced by [emerging market] central banks," Bank of America said in a note (4).

"The Fed is facing a growing credibility problem."

Timing the next interest rate hike

The Fed's next policy meeting is scheduled for (5) mid-September. In the meantime, investors have begun pricing in at least one rate increase before the end of the year.

The odds of Fed policymakers approving a quarter-point rate hike by year's end stand at 30.8%, according to CME Group's FedWatch (6) tool, which tracks investor sentiment.

JPMorgan is not forecasting an interest rate hike in 2026. But, the bank said a September hike remains possible depending on inflation's trajectory, which the Fed has long aimed to cap at 2%.

"All things considered, our base case remains the Fed will not hike rates this year, despite markets continuing to price in 1-2 rate increases by year end," JPMorgan Global Market Strategist Jordan Jackson wrote (7). "We acknowledge a hike in September as a real possibility depending on how the data evolves."

The bigger picture

There's a bit of good news on the inflation front — at least for now. Annual inflation came in at 3.5% in June (8), below the consensus Dow Jones estimate of 3.8%. The trend continued last month as well, as inflation stood at 3.4% in July (9).

A big part of the recent improvement has come from lower energy prices. The CPI energy index is down 7% from its May historical peak (10). But crude oil prices have already climbed about 10% in the first week of August as tensions between the U.S. and Iran have heated up again. If oil stays elevated, consumers could feel it at the gas pump — and higher energy costs can ripple through the broader economy.

There's also the AI spending boom. Goldman Sachs Research estimates that U.S. companies could spend $581 billion on AI-related capital expenditures this year (11). U.S. spending represents roughly 1.8% of GDP in 2026, and could reach 2.8% by 2028.

Aggressive AI spending is getting serious attention at the Federal Reserve. Last month, Fed Chairman Kevin Warsh appointed Stanford economist and AI expert Charles Jones to a task force focused on understanding how AI could affect the economy and what that could mean for monetary policy.

So, what does all of this mean for your finances? You probably can't control oil prices, Fed policy, or how much companies spend on AI. But you can make your own financial picture more resilient.

Start by paying down high-interest debt

Higher rates don't just matter on Wall Street. They can hit your wallet directly, especially if you're carrying credit card debt.

A balance that looks manageable on paper can become much more expensive when interest charges pile up month after month. And if you have multiple cards with different rates and due dates, keeping track of everything can make the problem even harder to tackle.

Debt consolidation may help simplify the picture. Depending on your credit profile, you may be able to replace several high-interest balances with a single personal loan at a lower rate. That could potentially reduce your interest costs while giving you one fixed payment to focus on.

Platforms like Credible can help you compare personal loan options.

You can comparison-shop for the lowest interest rates through Credible's online marketplace with just a few clicks.

You can find personal loans starting at 5.96% APR. Credible also offers a best rate guarantee — and if you close with a better rate than you prequalify for on the platform, you'll get a $200 gift card.

In less than three minutes, you'll see all the lenders willing to help pay off your credit cards or other debts with a single personal loan.

If you owe a substantial amount, you may also want to see if you qualify for a debt relief program to help clear a substantial portion of your debt.

With Freedom Debt Relief, you can speak with a certified debt relief consultant for free, who can show you how much you can save by partnering with them.

If you're eligible, they can negotiate settlements with your creditors until all of your enrolled debt is resolved.

Beef up your emergency savings

Getting rid of expensive debt is important, but so is making sure you don't have to reach for the credit card every time life throws you an unexpected expense.

An emergency fund can help provide that cushion. Whether it's a major car repair, a medical bill or a sudden job interruption, having cash available can keep a financial surprise from turning into long-term debt.

Higher rates have at least one benefit for savers — cash can earn meaningful returns through a high-yield account. These accounts typically offer significantly higher rates than traditional checking or savings accounts, allowing your money to grow quietly in the background while remaining easily accessible.

A high-yield account like a Wealthfront Cash Account can be a great place to grow your uninvested cash, offering both competitive interest rates and easy access to your money when you need it.

A Wealthfront Cash Account currently offers a base APY of 3.30% through program banks, and new clients can get an extra 0.75% boost during their first three months on up to $150,000 for a total variable APY of 4.05%.

That's ten times the national deposit savings rate, according to the FDIC's March report.

Additionally, Wealthfront is offering new clients who enable direct deposit ($1,000/mo minimum) to their Cash Account and open and fund a new investment account an additional 0.25% APY increase with no expiration date or balance limit, meaning your APY could be as high as 4.30%.

With no minimum balances or account fees, as well as 24/7 withdrawals and free domestic wire transfers, your funds remain accessible at all times. Plus, you get access to up to $8M FDIC Insurance eligibility through program banks.

Invest in inflation-proof assets

Once your financial safety net is in place, you can think about the other side of the equation — protecting your wealth from inflation. You might want to consider investing in assets that have historically held their value and delivered returns that outpace inflation over the long run.

Gold is one of the oldest examples. The precious metal has long been viewed as a potential hedge against inflation — earning that reputation over centuries because it isn't tied to any single company, currency, or economy. Unlike paper money, gold can't simply be created at will.

Gold prices have more than doubled over the past five years, hitting multiple record highs along the way and outpacing the S&P 500 over the same period.

Opening a gold IRA with the help of Goldco allows you to invest in gold and other precious metals in physical forms while also providing the significant tax advantages of an IRA.

With a minimum purchase of $10,000, Goldco offers free shipping and access to a library of retirement resources. Plus, the company will match up to 10% of qualified purchases in free silver.

If you're curious whether this is the right investment to diversify your portfolio, you can download your free gold and silver information guide today.

— With files from Joseph Zeballos-Roig